Trading with ZugZug

2010-04-03T10:14:00.000-07:00

S&P500 index, ascending triangle. What is an ascending triangle?
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:ascending_triangle_c

Muti month correction back testing previous trendlines. Today

2010-02-18T14:03:00.000-08:00

2009-12-11T08:59:00.001-08:00

We are about to go into a multi month correction for this 9 month upmove.

2009-11-06T10:00:00.001-08:00

2009-11-02T22:28:00.000-08:00

Bullish on OIL.

2009-10-29T02:41:00.001-07:00

On 10/28/09: Lesson of the day:

Do not countertrend trade or over trade when internals are solidly negative. Breadth negative, low tick below yesterday low and down trend since opening. Other than that, its a good day.

2009-10-27T23:47:00.001-07:00

Expecting sell-off on the S&P very soon.

2009-10-26T09:11:00.001-07:00

Volatility of different futures contracts and positions based on /ES

If I trade 4 /ES contracts, the equivalent are the following for identical gains based on volatility. Crude oil and copper are extremely volatile.

2009-10-21T13:55:00.000-07:00

Today, I've added a new widget to zugzug trading diary. This will allow me to post real time trades (ALL OF THEM) imported to this blog. TOS has a service called myTrade. It is awesome.

2009-10-02T20:33:00.000-07:00

As many of you know, I took a huge loss last month in early sept. As of today, I proudly announce that I am positive again. This week is great for trading.

ROLLERCOASTER

2009-09-30T14:39:00.001-07:00

Today is end of month, end of quarter. The result = massive swings on both side. I am fully short in DRV, ES and NQ. Expecting a gap down tomorrow.

For the Web's best interactive charts, please visit http://www.Prophet.Net

My account flipped from big negative to positive in about 3 minutes.

2009-09-29T07:30:00.001-07:00

Look at the 10AM confidence report action. What a huge red candle with big volume.

For the Web's best interactive charts, please visit http://www.Prophet.Net

The US dollar

2009-09-28T17:00:00.000-07:00

http://screencast.com/t/SlVl9b8OddNd

2009-09-03T07:50:00.000-07:00

Today is the first time that I have ever purchased Index futures. 2 contracts of Emini S&P 500 @ESU09
993

2009-09-03T01:25:00.001-07:00

Investing in Gold is a vote of "no confidence" in Wall Street and their sales pitches.

2009-08-31T03:22:00.000-07:00

ProphetCharts: $DJSH

2009-08-31T01:31:00.001-07:00

The world's leading index selling off.

For the Web's best interactive charts, please visit http://www.Prophet.Net

2009-08-24T07:28:00.001-07:00

I've had one of my worst trading weeks. I will post the performance in a bit.

I am in AGO at 20
LPX 6.76
C at 4.7
FNM 1.53

2009-08-18T08:18:00.000-07:00

AXL: Equal position at 4.84, 5.09
Sold 5.26

HURN Long: 19.13

ProphetCharts: ARM

2009-08-18T07:27:00.000-07:00

A break out followed by a pullback on huge volume is a bad sign.

Bought ARM 8:30, sold 8:26

For the Web's best interactive charts, please visit http://www.Prophet.Net

2009-08-17T12:49:00.000-07:00

I am carrying the largest short position of my entire trading lifetime.

Dip buying did not work this afternoon.

2009-08-17T12:24:00.001-07:00

2009-08-17T00:37:00.001-07:00

I proudly claim that market has topped and we are going into a intermediate term decline.

I've updated my performance page for the week. Its on the right --->

2009-08-16T20:51:00.001-07:00

I've talked about SSEC last week about how this leading index was deteriorating. SSEC just gaped down this morning. This imo will ripple to the rest of the world when index leader drop like this.

2009-08-13T20:52:00.001-07:00

EW just announced that there were only 3% bulls on a daily sentiment index for the US Dollar. Now "a trader should be interested in taking the other side of that trade!"

Because I am net short, I actually took a loss today even with some great trades today.

HOLDINGS
Long MMR: $7.8499

Shorted BAC: 16.88. I am iffy about this one, I should have covered at close.
Still holding FAZ, stop, previous low on FAZ.

Day Trades:
Covered RIMM at 72. indexes turned bullish when Business Inventory decreased.
Long MEE: $29.5798, Out $30.1301

2009-08-13T07:02:00.000-07:00

Short FCX: $64.2101 Covered 64.8

Short RIMM: 71.70

Gap and crap today.

2009-08-12T21:23:00.001-07:00

Holding FAZ overnight

Thoughts:
At an important top like this, I like to see how world indexes perform. The SSEC index has been a leading indicator. China is the largest creditor and exporter of the US. Recently SSEC has formed a double top piercing its neckline yesterday.

http://screencast.com/t/HziTj5Clh

2009-08-12T08:04:00.000-07:00

Bought FAZ before FOMC release at 26.45

Today's trade: Really good trending day.

AGM: 8.60 Out 8.95
FAS: 67.37 Out 72.22

2009-08-10T08:02:00.000-07:00

WYNN 59.47
Sold: $58.5815

PCLN: New all time high on huge volume.
Long: 146.41
Sold at 148.11 Sold because market is choppy and 150 is big resistance.

MGM Long 9.29
Sold 9.35

Unemployment Rate

2009-08-09T22:42:00.001-07:00

The past unemployment rate is based on the unemployed + discouraged workers / the work force.

Now discourage worker are removed from the equation. In a turn of events like Friday's unemployment change from 9.5% to 9.4%, the actual number of people unemployed actually increased. This is because people stopped looking for jobs. They are no longer part of the work force which caused the unemployment numbers to drop.

Here is the Employed workers / population which in my opinion is a more number approach in today's economy.

2009-08-03T05:04:00.000-07:00

From Atillia's Website: Aug 2 09 http://xtrends.blogspot.com/
Posted by:

MACT Today 12:44 AM

Why we are doomed.

1. employment or the lack of it...were still losing 500K jobs per month no matter what the govt does/says to sugarcoat it...it is a fact that 1.5M people will lose their unemployment benefits within 2-3 months...official unemployment running at almost 10% hence the true UE rate is 20% now...you will see tent cities within your town within 6-12 months....at the end of the freeway ramp you will see avg Joes/Janes asking for handouts...just watch.

2. CRE...commercial RE is where residential RE was in 06'...were just getting started...buyers of commercial RE were putting down 1% in many cases hence were extremely leveraged...35% of CRE loans need to be refinanced within the year...guess what, banks just saw the white light at end of the tunnel and there will be no refi's period!...welcome to writedowns round II...why do you think the banks are hoarding the cash???

3. currency crisis...as I have noted before, phase I is the credit crisis for corp's and individuals...phase II will be a currency crisis of states and countries...sovereign debts will cont to get downgraded and currency will start the collapse(but it wont reflate RE and stocks as much as the price of "things" will go up, hence it will slow down the economy even further)...dont be too surprised if they announce a bank holiday within the yr...also, when they announce the stimulus II within 6 months you will know were in deep shiit and we will also know the stories they are currently telling us is all BS...there is no recovery out there...ask anyone in business...sure the cash for clunkers might sell a few more cars but its all temporary...to say the recession is over is ludicrous and we all know it...you dont go from -6% GDP to -1% in one quarter...it doesnt work that way.

4. The current PE ratio of the SP500 is most likely in the 100's...sure they will tell you its 15-20 if you take out all the expenses(ie-pro forma earnings)...but based on GAAP its in the stratosphere...you really think the bear will end and a new secular bull will start with PE in the 100's?..absurd...just like before, the bear will end when PE ratios match corporate yields...ie-5-10...or when Dow equals the price of gold.

5.Once again the govt will try to reflate our way out of this mess...they will fail...current debt to GDP is 400, an all time high...we have 60T in obligations and debt...hence our debt to gdp ratio is 400%...other countries have collapsed and have seen hyperinflation when debt approached 100% of gdp...this is not sustainable...normally, when debt load gets too high and cannot be serviced anymore, the debt has to be paid back or go into default and the co's that made the bad bets need to go bankrupt for healthy cleansing to take place...ie-create an environment where people can start over...but this time the losers were the banks and the banks control the fed reserve and congress, hence they wont allow the banks to go under...so guess what, the bad debt has been transferred to you and your kids...this money will be paid back through higher taxes and inflation, this doesnt create an environment for healthy growth...we all know this is true.

6. Joe public has lost 10T in RE losses and 10T in the equity mkts...that is why they are scared and not spending...you see consumer confidence last week?...will you buy that second home when youre scared of losing your job?..that is our reality...credit is contracting...there is no more loose home equity ATM or credit card funny money...without good paying jobs, we cannot have a true recovery...no matter what the bulltards tell you on CNBC you cannot change this fact...without credit or money, we wont spend like drunken sailors...our savings rate went from negative to over 5% in 6 months, that is alarming...there is 4-5T sitting on the sidelines...50% of the NYSE trading volume is from blackbox trading programs...the public and HF's arent trading as much as the appetite for risk has lessened not by choice but because credit is contracting, that is clear deflation...deflation isnt obvious but its there and growing.

2009-07-27T12:36:00.000-07:00

One of the best trading days of my career:

Jazz 5.47
sold 6.10

US dollar break down.

2009-07-15T06:47:00.001-07:00

MONEY

2009-07-10T19:06:00.000-07:00

I really wish my broker could update this kind of stuff when I enter trade so i dont' have to do it myself.

Today, I bought SRS put a stop loss and went to sleep. I didn't wake up in term to sell it at the end =\.

2009-06-29T23:44:00.000-07:00

Great trading day =)

FUQI closed at 20
SPPI at 7.03

2009-06-29T06:38:00.001-07:00

FUQI long, 18.43. Still holding on to SPPI.

Board indexes looks strong today. Leadership stocks doing well or at support.

2009-06-26T16:56:00.001-07:00

Have not posted in a while, market is highly unpredictable and I trade less now.

I am currently in SPPI at 6.57. I think this company has great potential to go to at least 7.50.

2009-06-18T12:13:00.000-07:00

SOLD BG: $58.98

LONG FUQI: 14.15
SOLD half FUQI position at 15.95

2009-06-17T09:05:00.000-07:00

LONG BG 58.89
LONG HMSY 38.93

Sold X at a severe loss around 36.

2009-06-11T11:20:00.001-07:00

LONG X: $42.63

2009-06-11T09:34:00.000-07:00

ISRG: SOLD: $168.20
TC: LONG 12.41, SOLD 12.31. Terrible trade of the day.

SWING TRADE: TZA 20.89, small loss sold at 20.71

SOLD ICO: $3.58
SOLD CENX: $7.6801

2009-06-11T06:52:00.000-07:00

LONG CNEX 7.53

GREAT TRADING DAY LOVE IT:

LONG: ICO: 3.53
LONG: ISRG : $163.78

Still holding HERO
EDIT: SOLD HERO at: 5.35

2009-06-10T12:46:00.001-07:00

LONG: HERO: $5.2896

2009-06-10T12:26:00.000-07:00

Failures trades at the end of the day, short time frame, didn't have time to update. Market choppy. FML.
Small position of EBS: $15.22 SOLD: $14.1118
SRS: BUY: $19.3597 SOLD: $19.0703

2009-06-10T09:22:00.001-07:00

SOLD half position of LDK at $13.79 Another half at 13.73

2009-06-10T08:36:00.000-07:00

SOLD: PAL 2.58
SOLD: GMO 2.63
LONG: LDK 12.09

2009-06-09T11:59:00.001-07:00

Nav: 44.40
Pal: 2.38
I am still holding on GMO and NTES but going to sell them soon.

2009-06-08T07:05:00.001-07:00

http://screencast.com/t/VMVTss4BRr

2009-06-02T02:45:00.000-07:00

Long GMO 2.45
Long CHL 51.93
Long NTES

The collapse of a titan.

2009-05-15T09:17:00.001-07:00

Very dissapointed with my trading today. Numerous headfakes.

2009-05-13T13:06:00.001-07:00

Gap down in the morning:

2009-05-13T06:18:00.001-07:00

Weekly target 878

Russells breakout from 30 day trendline

2009-05-12T07:59:00.000-07:00

http://screencast.com/t/kPEXeZ4aH

FAZ: 5.05
TZA: 26.19

lol it is right at 910.

2009-05-11T16:44:00.001-07:00

I cannot call this a top because it didn't break 910 but closed at that level. We are heading for a decent retracement imo. 1-2 weeks.

Tomorrow's target 904 and 895 on the ES

2009-05-11T01:17:00.001-07:00

If tomorrow goes below 910 on ES, I am calling an intermediate top on this rally.

FAS avg at 11.22

2009-05-08T07:07:00.001-07:00

U-6 Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus
total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent
of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers = 15.8%

What was this number last April, it was 8.9%. That is a 77.5% increase.

From http://www.pikertrader.com/

TY PIKER!

Market Makers at work

2009-05-07T08:54:00.000-07:00

You gotta know what the professionals are thinking to profit.

Today, huge volume. a typical day for big reversal move. We gapped up by market makers to fill all the orders of short covering and also bull trap those in the morning. At this point, they loaded up the short covering shares on heavy volume.

Afternoon Review

2009-05-06T14:09:00.001-07:00

Afternoon charts:

S&P: http://screencast.com/t/x8siZp1u

VIX: http://screencast.com/t/E5FZ6CozZQ

FAZ lovers, Russel financial: http://screencast.com/t/KYPlAq60RQc

Mistake =\

2009-05-06T13:10:00.000-07:00

Bought FAS at a breakout today which would have netted 7% gain. When I put the stop loss, I accidentally put limit instead of stop limit and sold it right away at a lower price. COCK

Round 2. FAS $10.2994

2009-05-06T07:27:00.001-07:00

Sold, 10.57

FAS, 10.36, Sold: 10.52 Will buy back later

2009-05-06T06:32:00.001-07:00

Lol

2009-05-05T20:58:00.001-07:00

http://content.screencast.com/users/oakland1/folders/Jing/media/c2ee1468-692a-4632-90b2-c7e8e8954155/2009-05-05_2340.png

Today's Trade

2009-05-04T09:18:00.000-07:00

Bought on Friday FAZ: 8.74 sold 8.12 =(

Today: Major break of resistance. Why did I get back into FAZ? I got emotional =\
FAS: 8.33, sold: 8.56
FAZ: 7.88, sold 7.71
CAEI: 1.94
CDII: 1.91
FCX: 48.40

Cut Loss, Go Long

2009-05-04T07:14:00.000-07:00

Saw this chart today.

Does Technical Analysis Work?

2009-05-04T02:42:00.000-07:00

Some of these are trend following and some are oscillators.

From : http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=alwgQy9.K4LI&refer=home

Ranked Performance of Eight Technical Indicators

Indicator                              10/09/2007 - 3/09/2009

Relative Strength Index                                -49.0%
Williams %R                                            -41.7%
Commodity Channel Index                                -38.7%
Parabolic Systems                                      -36.6%
Bollinger Bands                                        -31.5%
Stochastics                                            -24.1%
Directional Movement Indicator                         +24.0%
Moving Average Convergence/Divergence                  +25.9%

S&P 500                                                -56.8%

--------

Indicator                               3/09/2009 - 5/01/2009

Commodity Channel Index                                 -8.3%
Williams %R                                             -8.3%
Bollinger Bands                                         -6.6%
Stochastics                                             -3.3%
Directional Movement Indicator                          -1.9%
Moving Average Convergence/Divergence                   +7.8%
Parabolic Systems                                       +8.2%
Relative Strength Index                                +21.8%

S&P 500                                                +29.7%

--------

Indicator                              10/09/2007 - 5/01/2009

Williams %R                                            -43.1%
Commodity Channel Index                                -40.3%
Parabolic Systems                                      -34.3%
Relative Strength Index                                -34.1%
Bollinger Bands                                        -22.2%
Stochastics                                            -21.8%
Directional Movement Indicator                          +9.0%
Moving Average Convergence/Divergence                  +24.6%

S&P 500                                                -43.9%

Friday Review: VIX, The Dollar, and The Financials

2009-05-02T02:52:00.001-07:00

VIX:

Financials:

THE DOLLAR:

Market choppy, trading relative strength today

2009-05-01T08:51:00.000-07:00

SGR 30.38, STOP 29

SCHN 51.88, STOP 49.85

UPDATE: Market choppy and these two stocks are choppy. Closed all positions with 1% loss.

Sold at:
SCHN: 51.55
SGR: 30.40

Financial showing weakness. Broke a trendline with H&S and closed below it. Look at the XLF posted later today.

FAZ at 8.70 full position

Russels 2000

2009-04-30T18:45:00.000-07:00

Closed FAZ position at 8.33, Did not break H&S.

2009-04-30T12:59:00.000-07:00

Market from 666 to 888 on the S&P

2009-04-30T09:59:00.001-07:00

Out of TZA at $27.66. Bought FAZ at 7.70

2009-04-30T07:44:00.000-07:00

Today's outlook

2009-04-29T22:00:00.000-07:00

TZA $28.65 full position. Stop 28.25

2009-04-29T11:31:00.000-07:00

Stopped out, reentered at $28.0199.

SGR out at 32.55

2009-04-29T11:22:00.001-07:00

Sold on FOMC announcement, things got volatile. S&P at all time high of 877 which could drop anytime

FAS at 8 dollars, sold 8.15

2009-04-29T07:18:00.001-07:00

SGR on the breakout today

2009-04-29T06:42:00.000-07:00

SGR amazing performance, blasting through 200MA and upward channel today with strong volume.
Bought at 31.50

Sold FAZ 9.07

2009-04-28T17:39:00.000-07:00

Market Choppy, Wen went to take a nap instead.

bought FAZ back at $9.04

2009-04-28T07:39:00.000-07:00

Stop loss 8.85

SOLD FAZ at 9.36

2009-04-28T07:09:00.001-07:00

gapped down, but strong rally back up. Consumer Confidence Index was better than expected by 10 point. Rally by MM is eminent.

FAZ, bought at 8.87

2009-04-27T12:59:00.000-07:00

Bought on a 3 day reversal pattern, Evening star occurred at day's close. Financial is showing relative weakness.

Swine Flu fear hurts economy!!!! This is imo a cover up story.
- GOLD went DOWN today. When people are fearful, precious metals always go up. This is a strong basis of why.

Interesting Reads.
http://www.tradersnarrative.com/the-definitive-guide-to-trading-mastery-success-2460.html
http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2009/04/china-has-begun-building-gold-reserves.html

First post

2009-04-27T05:45:00.001-07:00

I've started a blog to share ideas and knowledge with everyone. Also to keep track of my trades and learn from them.

Trading with ZugZug

S&P500 index, ascending triangle. What is an ascending triangle?http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:ascending_triangle_c

Muti month correction back testing previous trendlines. Today

ROLLERCOASTER

My account flipped from big negative to positive in about 3 minutes.

The US dollar

ProphetCharts: $DJSH

ProphetCharts: ARM

Dip buying did not work this afternoon.

Unemployment Rate

US dollar break down.

The collapse of a titan.

Very dissapointed with my trading today. Numerous headfakes.

Gap down in the morning:

Russells breakout from 30 day trendline

lol it is right at 910.

FAS avg at 11.22

Market Makers at work

Afternoon Review

Mistake =\

Round 2. FAS $10.2994

FAS, 10.36, Sold: 10.52 Will buy back later

Lol

Today's Trade

Cut Loss, Go Long

Does Technical Analysis Work?

Friday Review: VIX, The Dollar, and The Financials

Market choppy, trading relative strength today

Russels 2000

Closed FAZ position at 8.33, Did not break H&S.

Market from 666 to 888 on the S&P

Out of TZA at $27.66. Bought FAZ at 7.70

Today's outlook

TZA $28.65 full position. Stop 28.25

SGR out at 32.55

FAS at 8 dollars, sold 8.15

SGR on the breakout today

Sold FAZ 9.07

bought FAZ back at $9.04

SOLD FAZ at 9.36

FAZ, bought at 8.87

First post

S&P500 index, ascending triangle. What is an ascending triangle?
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:ascending_triangle_c